As we go to the polls once again; why are opinion polls so bad? How can we make better predictions about elections? Is the betting market a better guide? Who will win the 2017 UK General Election? And will it be decided by the Invisible Hand?
Alpha is a measure of genuine skill or achievement, with the benefits of built-in advantages stripped out. It is used in finance to measure investment skill, and it can be used in sports and betting too.
We are in the era of big data, and being a data scientist is supposed to be the ‘sexiest job of the 21st century’. What makes somebody good at analysing data? How should we treat context, correlation and causation? And how did data science get it so wrong with the 10k hour rule?
This is the abstract submission I put together for the 2016 OPTA Pro analytics conference. Would you have been interested to hear the presentation?
Does analytics actually work? It is unquestionably cool and fashionable. But is it over-hyped? Is Moneyball a myth? And can sports teams learn anything from professional sports bettors?
The reigning English champions are languishing down at the foot of the league. What on earth has happened at Chelsea?
“Analytics don’t work at all. It’s just some crap that people who were really smart made up to try to get in the game because they had no talent.”
What does a football manager actually do? And how can we tell if he’s any good at it?